The price premium for durum over spring wheat is narrowing. That’s one of the takeaways from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s June outlook report for principal field crops.
Ag Canada has lowered its durum price forecast for the current crop year. The May forecast had the average price of durum at $450 a tonne for the year. The June forecast has been lowered to $430 a tonne. A big drop in the average price of durum to $350 a tonne is predicted for the upcoming crop year which begins August 1. Meanwhile, the Ag Canada price projection for spring wheat in the new crop year has improved from $310 to $335 a tonne. The price difference between durum and spring wheat is now expected to average $95 a tonne in the current crop year and only $15 a tonne in the new crop year. That’s an historically small durum premium.
On barley, Ag Canada has increased its current crop year price forecast by $15 a tonne, but the forecast for the new crop year is $20 a tonne lower than this year. That would be the lowest barley price in four years.
A big rebound is expected in oat production, up 33 per cent year-over-year due to an estimated increase in seeded area and the assumption of normal yields. However, the average price of oats is expected to be $40 a tonne lower in the new crop year.
Ag Canada has increased its new crop price forecast for canola by $25 a tonne as compared to last month. Meanwhile, both new crop lentil and pea price forecasts are up by $30 a tonne. However, the lentil price is still expected to be down dramatically year-over-year.
