As Saskatchewan heads toward a pivotal election, the Saskatchewan Party’s quest for a fifth consecutive majority is encountering unexpected turbulence.
New polling from the Angus Reid Institute indicates the closest race between the Saskatchewan Party and the opposition NDP since the former’s rise to power in 2007. Premier Scott Moe’s party leads with 49% support, but the NDP is closing in with 42%, marking the narrowest gap in recent memory.
The NDP’s resurgence is most apparent in urban centers. In Regina, the party commands 58% support, while in Saskatoon, it’s neck-and-neck with the Saskatchewan Party, each capturing around 50% of the vote. However, the NDP’s influence wanes in rural areas, where 57% of voters remain loyal to the Saskatchewan Party. The NDP’s appeal is strongest among younger voters (58% of 18- to 34-year-olds), but this demographic’s historically lower turnout and greater likelihood of changing their vote may quash an orange wave on the prairie.
Voter dissatisfaction with the current government’s handling of key issues such as healthcare, inflation, and public safety is fueling the NDP’s momentum.
Two-thirds of Saskatchewan residents, including a majority outside of Regina and Saskatoon, believe the government has poorly managed these critical areas.
The upcoming election appears to hinge on whether this dissatisfaction can overcome the Saskatchewan Party’s enduring rural support and the unpredictability of the youth vote.
