The wheat harvest is at different stages around the world.
In Canada, the spring wheat harvest is in the early stages. Saskatchewan is 4 per cent complete as of August 19, Alberta is 5 per cent complete, and Manitoba is 3 per cent complete. Durum harvest in Saskatchewan is about 14 per cent complete as of August 19. Saskatchewan totals for harvest will be updated in Thursday’s crop report.
Speaking on the latest SaskWheat Market Outlook, Marlene Boersch with Mercantile Consulting Venture says scattered rainfall, cooler temperatures, and high humidity in the U.S. continue to slow harvest. She cited State sources estimating “50 percent of Minnesota’s, 25 percent of North Dakota’s, and 45 percent of Montana’s crops are harvested, with USDA estimating 70 percent for South Dakota. Quality reports from early harvested fields, before recent rains, have been good. In higher yielding areas, protein levels are trending lower than in recent years.” Despite the rain, yields remain promising.
The Russian harvest is moving along but not without its challenges. “The Volga region was described as a disaster by locals, and persistent rains are also slowing the harvest in the higher yield potential areas” reads the report on the SaskWheat website. Some analysts are lowering their production estimate for Russia below 80 million mt.
The crop in Kazakhstan is expected to be a record or near record at close to 16 million tonnes, in line with USDA and US Ag Attache estimates, but like Russia, are dealing with similar challenges.
In Argentina, Boersch says the wheat crop was described as mixed with some of the more developed areas not doing well ” although recent rains are helping the less developed stands recover yield potential.” The Argentine wheat crop is rated at 39 per cent good-to-excellent, which is down from 41 per cent last week, but up from last year’s 23 per cent.
Harvest in the European Union is basically done.
Exports and cash trades
The Canadian Grain Commission noted 316 thousand tonnes of wheat was exported in week two of the 2024-25 crop year, down from week one. The year-to-date total is 844 thousand tonnes, ahead of last year’s start to the crop year. Canadian durum exports for week two were 35 thousand tonnes for a year-to-date total of 122 thousand tonnes, well ahead of the same time last year.
Last week’s rail stoppage didn’t seem to affect the market much as it traded down Thursday, and it was a bad week for spring wheat futures in general.
Boersch says there were no significant trades but a few small ones. Tunisia paid between $243 and $246/mt c&f for an October shipment, Jordan put out a tender for Milling wheat “and Japan’s weekly ag ministry tender showed purchases of 81k mt of U.S. and Canadian wheat, with 54k mt U.S. specific.”
She also mentioned the U.S. Export Sales report showed 493 thousand tonnes sold in the week of August 15, on the high end of the 250-500 thousand tonne estimated range of sales and it was a five-week high.
The full written report and the Wheat Market Outlook podcast can be found on the SaskWheat website.
